The security landscape in Europe is evolving, due to the prolonged Russia’s war against Ukraine but also in the context of turbulence of transatlantic relations. A policy-oriented report brings together Polish and German experts to formulate multidimensional assessment of the strategic challenges facing the European Union, with a particular focus on the role of Poland and Germany as key actors on the eastern flank.
The report situates European security within a moment of profound transformation. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has not only reshaped the military balance in Eastern Europe but has also exposed structural weaknesses in Europe’s defence capabilities and political cohesion. At the same time, growing uncertainty about the long-term commitment of the United States to European security has intensified debates about strategic autonomy, burden-sharing, and the future of the transatlantic alliance.
The volume is structured around three key thematic areas including the evolution of European security and defence policy, the Black Sea region and the South Caucasus, and Ukraine’s path toward European Union membership:
Aleksandra Kozioł analyses the shift in the European Union’s defence policy from short-term crisis management to more structural and long-term solutions, particularly after 2025 on Poland and Germany as examples. She highlights that their closer bilateral cooperation could significantly strengthen European defence capabilities. Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven examines Europe’s growing security dilemma in the face of an increasingly aggressive Russia and a radically less predictable United States. The author argues that Europe must rapidly strengthen its strategic autonomy while maintaining transatlantic ties.
Joanna Piechowiak explores the renewed strategic importance of the Black Sea and South Caucasus regions as an arena of geopolitical competition. She highlights the need for more coherent and sustained engagement of both Poland and the EU as a whole. Wilfried Jilge analyses the central role of the Black Sea in Russia’s long-term imperial strategy, with particular emphasis on Crimea and the concept of “Novorossiya.” He underlines that the continuation of Russian control over Crimea poses a lasting threat to regional stability and underscores the need for robust security guarantees for Ukraine.
Igor Mitchnik examines evolving German public and political attitudes toward Ukraine’s EU accession. He notices the shift from solidarity to a more cautious, criteria-based approach. Finally, Paweł Chmieliński focuses on the implications of Ukraine’s accession for the EU’s agricultural sector and internal market. Ukraine’s integration will test the EU’s ability to reconcile economic competition with political solidarity, and will require strategic adjustments from its member states, particularly those most exposed to agricultural pressures.
Overall, the report contributes to ongoing debates on the future of European security by offering concrete policy recommendations grounded in both German and Polish perspectives. It highlights the urgency of strengthening European defense, deepening regional cooperation, maintaining support for Ukraine and pragmatic approach to transatlantic relations.
The report is published within the framework of the German-Polish Roundtable on Eastern Europe, jointly organised by the College of Eastern Europe (KEW) and the Heinrich Böll Foundation (HBS) in Warsaw. It was edited by Adam Balcer. It is intended for policymakers, analysts, and all those interested in the future of European security at a time of unprecedented geopolitical change.
Read the full text: How to make Europe secure again
