The presidential elections in Poland which took place in May-June 2025 confirmed the shift to the right on the political scene. Right-wing and far-right candidates won a combined 53% of the vote in the first round, and Karol Nawrocki’s final victory in the second round served as a final warning to Donald Tusk’s government ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections.
However, the elections showed more than just the rise of far right. In her policy paper, Professor Maria Wincławska (Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Poland) describes a general strengthening of extreme sentiments in a polarized Poland. A total of one-fifth of voters cast their ballots for parties on the extreme right and far left. The party duopoly established in 2005 between the Civic Coalition (KO) and Law and Justice (PiS) is gradually faltering. On the one hand, the governing coalition is encountering great difficulties in governing due to the widely differing views of the parties that make it up. On the other, the largest opposition party, PiS, is feeling pressure from an even more far-right Confederation and extremists from the Crown.
The author underlines an immense gap in voting behavior between the radicalized youngest and older generations, most of whom supported more moderate political options.
The election of Karol Nawrocki as president poses a particular challenge for Donald Tusk’s government. The new president is not directly affiliated with PiS, but the presidential palace is very active politically and often clashes with the government’s policies. Maria Wincławska also emphasizes that the restoration of the rule law which was expected after the 2023 parliamentary elections faces serious problems.
The author also presents several possible scenarios for the development of the situation in Poland in the future years. They include inter alia a coalition government between PiS and Konfederacja after the 2027 elections or the Civic Coalition remaining in power thanks to cooperation with Mentzen’s party which is gaining the position of kingmaker.
Policy paper was edited by Adam Balcer.
Read the whole document: PP: Radical Turn
Co-financed by the National Freedom Institute – Centre for Civil Society Development in the framework of the Civil Society Organisations Development Programme for 2018-2030 CSODev
