As political polarization in Poland intensifies and the far-right ideas strengthen their position in mainstream, the recent presidential election served as a “general rehearsal” ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections. It should be treated as a key factor that will seal the fate of Polish democracy in the coming years because of the president’s veto power which can be overruled only by 60% of MPs. The result of the election was tight, but ultimately Karol Nawrocki, the candidate supported by the far-right Law and Justice (PiS) party, secured the majority of votes in the second-round wining 51% of votes, while in the first one right wing candidates achieved in total even a slightly better result.
As part of the EU co-funded Protecting European Values project, our team of experts and fellows explored various scenarios for Poland following the election. On June 12–13, our experts and fellows, Maria Wincławska, Fabio Turco, Anaïs Marin, and Agnieszka Bryc met with several scholars, journalists, and analysts in Warsaw in order to deepen their understanding of the current political landscape.
Firstly, the experts met with Agnieszka Szczęśniak, a journalist from OKO.press, an investigative journalism website.She emphasized the importance of candidate debates, which allowed the public to become familiar with candidates from outside the dominant parties. According to Szczęśniak, the popularity of these debates influenced the outcome of the first-round. She also stressed the role of non-traditional media outlets in mobilizing voters who do not follow mainstream media. In her view, Rafał Trzaskowski’s defeat resulted mainly from underestimating his opponents and lacking a coherent campaign strategy.
The second meeting was with Krzysztof Izdebski from the board of the Batory Foundation. He highlighted that Nawrocki’s victory is likely to intensify tensions between the government and the presidential office, given Nawrocki’s more radical views compared to outgoing president Andrzej Duda. The election once again exposed deep societal divisions over issues such as migration, democratic norms, national sovereignty, and EU integration. Izdebski noted that although the Confederation, a far-right party primarily targeted younger voters, its message also resonated to a substantial degree with older generations.
Concerns about polarization were echoed by Dr. Małgorzata Kaczorowska, a political scientist at the University of Warsaw. She argued that Nawrocki’s main rival, Rafał Trzaskowski, struggled with perceptions of political indecision and strong associations with the Civic Coalition. Dr. Kaczorowska also predicted internal conflict between The Left and the Together party, which could further weaken Poland’s already fragmented left wing.
Dr. Tomasz Rawski, a sociologist at the University of Warsaw, discussed the dynamics of voter behavior. In the first round, many voters rejected the traditional two-party system, favoring left-wing and far-right candidates—particularly among the youngest demographic. The increased turnout in comparison to the 2020 presidential elections benefited the far right, who’s messaging increasingly dominates over liberal narratives, shifting the entire political spectrum decisively rightward. Dr. Rawski also observed that cultural issues overtook security and economic concerns during the campaign. He noted that while anti-Ukrainian sentiment has risen, it does not translate into pro-Russian attitudes. He also stated that Confederation is edging closer to becoming a legitimate contender for a future governing coalition.
The day concluded with a meeting with Edwin Bendyk, chairman of the Batory Foundation. He suggested that a PiS–Confederation coalition is a strong possibility for the 2027 elections, though he did not rule out a potential deal between the Civic Coalition and Confederation. Bendyk highlighted weaknesses in the current ruling coalition, particularly in inter-party cooperation. Although there has been some undeniable progress compared to the previous government, the rule of law remains questionable. On foreign policy, Nawrocki is expected to pursue closer ties with the United States, while relations of Poland with the EU may deteriorate in the coming years.
The final meeting took place with journalists Marek Tejchman, acting editor-in-chief of daily Dziennik Gazeta Prawna and Barbara Kasprzycka, its deputy editor-in-chief. They predicted that Nawrocki would run his presidency rather independently from PiS, despite the party’s support during the campaign. They also foresee PiS becoming more radical by 2027, manipulating legislation to circumvent legal checks after the next elections. Since PiS came to power in 2015, the public has become desensitised to political scandals. While such events once reshaped political dynamics, they are now quickly overshadowed by new scandals—leading politicians to believe they can avoid legal consequences regardless of the severity of accusations. The journalists also highlighted unresolved structural problems: underfunded healthcare and education, rising military spending combined with generous social programs—all of which place significant strain on the national budget.
In conclusion, our interlocutors agreed that Karol Nawrocki’s victory marks the beginning of a new era of political rivalry in Poland with pendulum swinging strongly to the right with likely implications for both domestic governance and international relations.
