The results of the 2025 German Bundestag election were as much a success for the far-right Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD) as they were an indicator of the increased fragmentation of the German political landscape and decline of the German Volksparteien (major mainstream parties). The impact of these developments reaches beyond national politics: At the European level, the AfD’s continuous rise, its potential collaboration with other Euroscepticist and anti-European parties, and its objective to undermine the EU from within pose a growing threat.
In their policy paper “Ever more radical, ever more popular? The AfD after Germany’s 2025 election”, Florian Lippert and Pola Cebulak describe the political landscape in the EU’s largest economy after the February snap elections. As Germany’s new coalition government between the CDU/CSU and the SPD formed, public attention repeatedly shifted to the far-right AfD, which had received the second-highest number of votes in the election, and subsequently even overtook all other parties in some national popularity polls. Soon afterwards, the party was classified by the domestic intelligence agency as “definitely right-wing extremist.” As the authors argue, this dual development – rising popularity alongside increasing radicalization – presents a serious challenge to the established parties, prompting urgent questions about their future strategies and the AfD’s potential political ceiling.
While traditional parties lose voter support, the AfD is positioning itself as a “new Volkspartei”, particularly in the eastern regions. Lippert and Cebulak emphasize that if this trend continues, it may soon become impossible to form local governments without involving the far right. At the national level, in turn, The AfD’s primary strategic goal is to position the CDU/CSU as a potential (junior) partner in the future. To achieve this, it may either moderate its image to broaden appeal and pressure the conservatives to soften or drop their firewall policy, or further radicalize to continue testing the limits of political tolerance and erode the established parties’ resistance.
In the European context, the AfD’s Euroscepticism has evolved from an opposition to financial bailouts during the Euro crisis to a more radical stance focused on ethno-nationalism, conspiracy theories, and a critique of the EU’s liberal order, aiming to subvert rather than exit the bloc. Although the AfD has had limited influence in the European Parliament so far, its rise in Germany may strengthen the illiberal political bloc in Europe in the future.
The authors conclude that the AfD’s success and potential for governmental power will depend on its own strategic positioning – whether it continues radicalizing or moderates – and how other parties, particularly the CDU/CSU, position themselves towards the AfD, including decisions about maintaining or softening their firewall policy. If current trends persist, the 2025 election may mark the last time the AfD’s participation in government is ruled out for conservatives, leading to a more fragmented political landscape where populist pressures and compromises may shift the center of politics further right.
Florian Lippert is Associate Professor for European Culture and Literature and Director of the Research Centre for the Study of Democratic Cultures and Politics (DemCP) at the University of Groningen, Netherlands.
Pola Cebulak is Associate Professor in European Law at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. She holds the JUDILL Jean Monnet Chair on “Judges vs Illiberalism: Legal Mobilization for the Rule of Law”.
Read the entire policy paper here: Ever more radical
