Piotr Kocyba, Florian Lippert
In the latest policy paper, Piotr Kocyba and Florian Lippert focus on the division in German society that has become visible once more after the regional elections in the Eastern part of the country in autumn 2024. Established democratic parties are losing their voters in favor of radical ones in the East, which are becoming more significant for forming regional governments. Moreover, political campaigns in Eastern Germany are increasingly mirroring American campaigns, based on charismatic leaders, emotional mobilization and divisive rhetoric. The personalization of politics also accelerates shifts in public opinion, as does the success of the far right Alternative für Deutschland’s (AfD) social media campaigns. The AfD’s political modus operandi represents a serious threat of erosion of democratic values and deepens the legitimacy crisis of established parties.
The policy paper examines the causes of the rise of support for the AfD and explains the growth of the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), a nationalist conservative left party. It draws attention to the large difference in the scale of pro-democratic protests against the rise of the AfD between Western and Eastern Germany, where chauvinism and xenophobia are more common. In consequence, as Lippert and Kocyba show, it is getting harder and harder to win over the AfD in the East.
The authors provide some scenarios for state-level politics in East Germany. In a growing number of cases, the only coalition partner left for established democratic parties to trump the AfD is the BSW – “a partner that sees itself as a challenger to the political establishment and is testing the limits of democratic culture in Eastern Germany”. Forming coalitions with the BSW might be harmful especially for the CDU, and may, in the long run, scare votes away. On the other hand, minority governments such as the one between the CDU and the SPD in Saxony are often perceived as unstable.
The necessary participation of the BSW in governments is also likely to significantly influence German foreign policy on a state level on the most controversial issues. Established democratic parties in the East may adjust their political program further towards the right in order not to lose more votes. The authors argue that future coalition building – after the coming elections in February 2025 – may be harder than ever, and that the coming years could see a further undermining of public confidence in the ability of mainstream parties to provide stable and viable solutions.
To read the whole report click the link below.
The policy paper was produced as part of the “Protecting European Values” project.
