The report, prepared by Adam Balcer of the College of Eastern Europe (KEW) and Pavel Havlíček of the Association for International Affairs (AMO), reveals five possible scenarios for the future of EU-Russian relations, paying a special attention to Central Eastern European (CEE) member states.
The report is based on the method of strategic foresight and scenario building. The report’s goals are to stimulatepublic discussion of Russia’s future, to strengthen the visibility of opinions and advice on dealing with Russia coming from the CEE countries, and to show the consequences of potential EU actions against Russia.
The first scenario envisages that Russia will be weakened by various stalemates and preoccupied with serious domestic problems after the death of Vladimir Putin.
The second scenario predicts that Russia will not be able to deal with independence aspirations of non-Russian republics, especially Chechnya supported by external actors.
The third scenario assumes Russia’s victory in Ukraine and its transformation into a completely totalitarian state, which would be fostered by the international situation (rise of China).
The fourth scenario foresees that Ukraine prevails in the war and the resulting shaking of Moscow’s authority.
The fifth scenario circulates around the absorption of Belarus by Russia and that a high level of authoritarianism is maintained.
Expert recommendations in the report include, among others: that the CEE countries work out interfaces on the basis of which they can create a unified policy towards Russia; that they take an active stance on the European Union forum towards maintaining a unified position towards Russia and propose innovative strategies towards the country concentrating on the deterrence and support for Ukraine. In addition, CEE countries should focus on building the operational capabilities of NATO’s eastern flank, as well as participate in the formation of new Russian elites in exile, promoting the idea of genuine democratization and federalization of Russia and at the same time actively opposing Putin’s propaganda and disinformation. You can find more information about the report in the attachment. Russia Futures 2030
On September 10th, a webinar on Russia’s future in the 2030 perspectives organized by the College of Eastern Europe, the Association for International Affairs (AMO) and the German Marshall Fund was held. The webinar served as a platform to discuss the future of the country and its relations with the international environment. The speakers were Adam Balcer of the College of Eastern Europe (KEW) and Pavel Havlíček of the Association for International Affairs (AMO). In the discussion moderated by Nicolas Bouchet participated Kadri Liik of European Council on Foreign Relations and Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti of Italian Institute of International Political Studies.
You can find the whole recording of the Webinar here.
