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Kristina Tsabala is an analyst focusing on anti-corruption and the rule of law at the Centre for the Study of Democracy, Bulgaria.
The electoral fatigue in Bulgaria and the incapability of the politicians to form a government produced a record low turnout rate in the most recent parliamentary elections. As a result, the radical right is on the rise because it is seen as a viable alternative with a “genuine” anti-establishment, oppositional and critical component. Disinformation and susceptibility to pro-Russian attitudes are key for the popularity of radical-right parties, which weaponize marginalization and dissatisfaction instead of finding solutions to the real problems.
In April 2021 Bulgaria went through the first round of many elections yet to take place. At that time, the Bulgarian voter was not aware of what was awaiting the country: six parliamentary elections, one presidential, one municipal and one European. By June 2024, the Bulgarian voter had cast his or her vote nine times and Bulgarians are heading to… parliamentary election in Autumn 2024. The elected parties in parliament permanently have had a very difficult time reaching a compromise and forming a government over the last four years, reflecting the polarization in Bulgarian society itself. Throughout these nine electoral rounds, a critical difference in the results is noticeable when it comes to the radical-right parties. In the summer of 2021, no radical-right or Eurosceptic party entered parliament, while in 2024, two gained 41 seats in total (out of 240). In the last parliamentary elections on June 9th 2024, Revival (Vazrazhdane) achieved almost 14 per cent and a new party called Greatness (Velichie) passed the threshold with close to five per cent. Greatness was a surprise for the Bulgarian public, as it was not considered at all in the sociological polls. It is also not led by any important or popular figure as in previous cases of such new and successful parties. Moreover, two small far-right parties did not manage to cross the threshold but in total gathered four per cent of the vote. Finally, There Is Such a People (ITN), a populist party (member of the European Conservatives and Reformists – ECR) gained almost six per cent of the vote and this translated into 16 seats.
Disillusionment with the ruling elite
The elections in April 2021 took place as the result of yearlong protests against the government and the ruling centre-right party (Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria – GERB). The make-up of the parliament at the time included a populist right-wing party, with the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization (VMRO) now the third power in the parliament. However, they lost significant support once they joined the GERB-led government. Of course, they lost the key opposition component of their campaigning, which was the main driver of support based on public disillusionment. They did not pass the threshold in 2021 to enter the parliament again. In 2017, VMRO’s electoral support dropped from almost ten per cent to 3.5 per cent. By 2024, the IMRO remained marginal. Meanwhile, Revival was gaining popularity due to their anti-vax and conspiracy narratives, which have thrived in the Bulgarian media space. But it was only in the November 2021 elections that they passed the threshold of four per cent. Bulgaria was one of the very few countries in the EU which did not have any “hard” far-right party in parliament in 2021. This was a unique period in which these parties did not win any seats in two consecutive elections, while such parties across Europe started to gain great popularity. The main reason for this was protest engagement, which focused on anti-corruption reforms and the dismissal of the controversial Prosecutor General. Thus, the electorate focused on reform-oriented parties that offered solutions and addressed the problems of democracy related to corruption.
The mix of Russophilia and far-right orientation
Since the entry of Revival into parliament, the ideological mix of pro-Russian and radical-right ideas has gained popularity steadily. It is not only that they won more and more supporters, as they are also consistent in their voting behaviour. Meanwhile, throughout the period of the political crisis, the reform-oriented parties and the liberal democratic opposition remarkably lost support but their voters were not swayed to vote for other parties. They simply stopped voting, which is very visible in the 2024 results. This election resulted in the lowest turnout rate in the contemporary history of Bulgaria. There is a consistent cluster of voters who are radicalized, and they are only swayed by pro-Russian and right-wing parties. They vote for a number of parties that do not differ a lot from each other. Revival took the place of VMRO, just as VMRO took the place of Ataka, which was the previous pro-Russian radical party well known in the country. VMRO and Ataka attracted a maximum of nine per cent of voters in the national elections. However, Revival won almost 15 per cent in the last elections, achieving the best-ever result after 1989 for any radical-right party in Bulgaria.
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Greatness itself is an example of a party that represents an even more radicalized group. Its emergence represents a considerable threat to Bulgarian democracy because it justifies and normalizes the existence of Revival, Euroscepticism and democratic backsliding in general. Greatness does not only promote leaving NATO and the EU, and support for Russia, but also attacks human rights defenders and civil society organizations. Furthermore, the group is linked to the grey economy.
Low turnout and high results
However, the success of Revival and Greatness should not be considered a win that will allow them to control the hearts and minds of the people. It is rather a by-product of significant disappointment with democracy and a lack of civic engagement. In June 2024, Bulgaria held its fifteenth parliamentary elections since 1989 and the sixth since April 2021. It also achieved a record in the lowest turnout rate in its history, amounting to 34 per cent or close to 2.3 million people in a country of more than 6.4 million citizens. Moreover, three per cent of them voted in a way that showed that they do not support anyone. In comparison, in April 2021, almost 51 per cent went to vote. Greatness passed the threshold with slightly less than 100,000 votes in 2024. This amounts to 30,000 less than when Revival managed to gain seats in 2021. Revival managed to become the third most popular party in Bulgaria in 2024, with just under 300,000 votes. Overall, many people did not vote for this party in a positive way. Instead, they were discouraged to vote for the rest of the parties. The lower turnout rate allows for anti-democratic groups to take hold and to be more represented in decision-making positions than other political forces in the country. Effectively, 69 per cent of Bulgarians do not support anyone. This leaves a significant power vacuum that is filled by radicals who do not represent the majority of citizens. The result is that the population becomes even more disillusioned with the democratic structure. The existence of such a significant group of far-right and pro-Russian politicians in parliament may lead to the blocking of many pro-European and progressive reforms. It could also deter a convergence with EU and pro-Atlantic values in general.
A wake-up call?
The political crisis in Bulgaria showed that the radical right is perceived as a viable alternative while the rest of the parties lost a great part of their endorsement. The key drive towards these groups has been caused by targeted disinformation campaigns. These parties benefit from widespread disillusionment following consecutive unsuccessful attempts to establish sustainable governments. These failures have been caused by the political struggles between GERB and other mainstream parties, as well as the incapability of the reform-oriented parties to implement long discussed changes. The long-term social media campaigns of Greatness and Revival on Youtube, Telegram and TikTok engaged the public with alternative scenarios, favouring the Kremlin and scepticism regarding the essence of democracy itself. In the conventional fashion of disinformation, Greatness plays on the “demographic crisis” and “migration flows”, which is a very emotional problem in the Bulgarian reality. The party infiltrated those marginalized conspiracy believers whose worldview intersects with the cluster of pro-Kremlin supporters and conservative groups, where homophobia, sexism and racism are widespread. The spillover of these narratives into the public space in Bulgaria reinforces disillusionment among the reform-oriented and centrist electorate, which voted for the democratic opposition previously. This group has now become even more disappointed that far-right populist parties are represented in parliament instead of more democratic groups, with the failure of proposed solutions creating further disillusionment with democracy itself. Electoral fatigue and anti-democracy attitudes are also on the rise, resulting in a lack of belief in elections as a political process and the potential power of civic engagement.
Polarization in Bulgaria appears to have increased in recent years. Popular parties which are not open to compromises represent citizens who vote for them for this specific reason: they will not side with the rest. With so many radical representatives in the parliament it is nearly impossible to form a government. The legislative process will additionally be blocked by the far right (Revival and Greatness) and the rest of the oppositional pro-Russian groups (Socialists and ITN). As a government was not formed, Bulgarians are called to the seventh parliamentary elections since 2021. If the last elections do not serve as a wake-up call for Bulgarian society, the far right will continue to benefit from the electoral fatigue and win more mandates until it is capable of forming a government with Revival, Greatness, BSP and ITN. This might just spell the end for Bulgarian democracy.
Edited by Adam Balcer
