In Hungary, Fidesz secured 45% of the vote. Zsuzsanna emphasized that this outcome represents a pivotal shift in the country’s political course since 2010, as despite capturing the largest number of seats in the European Parliament (11), Fidesz, by falling below the 50% threshold, has registered its lowest electoral percentage in two decades,Fidesz’s decline can be attributed to Peter Magyar, a former party member who has now emerged as its primary adversary. Leading the newly established TISZA party, Magyar secured an impressive 30% of the vote and seven MEP seats—marking a feat unprecedented by any opposition party since Viktor Orban took office in 2010. This success is even more significant as Magyar has risen within Hungary’s right-wing political sphere, which has traditionally been monopolized by Fidesz.
Nevertheless, Zsuzsanna highlighted that TISZA’s future depends heavily on Magyar’s ability to build strong party structures and broaden support. According to Zsuzsanna, Magyar benefits from a robust social media presence, allowing for direct voter engagement and circumventing traditional media aligned with pro-Fidesz interests. Nonetheless, the alignment of Magyar’s agenda with broader state democratization goals in the future remains uncertain.
Tomáš highlighted the significant importance of Slovakia’s recent European elections as well. This year marked a distinct shift as Slovak politicians approached the elections with unprecedented commitment, leading to high mobilization across both opposition and ruling factions. The campaign resulted in a notable turnout of almost 35%, which is exceptionally high for the country. The opposition framed the elections as a quasi-referendum on the government’s policies, while SMER focused its efforts on rallying support for Prime Minister Robert Fico, who survived an assassination attempt, emphasizing security, migration, and policies regarding the war in Ukraine. Unexpectedly, Progressive Slovakia, a progressive-liberal opposition party, secured a notable victory with 28% of the vote, surpassing SMER by a margin of 3 percentage points.
In Poland, the European elections represented a symbolic turning point as the Civic Coalition (KO), a leading ruling political group, surpassed the “soft” far-right Law and Justice (PiS) party for the first time in ten years, albeit by a narrow less than one percentage point margin. Nevertheless, Adam noted that PiS and the “hard” far-right Confederation together garnered nearly 50% of the vote, suggesting that despite their diminished influence, anti-democratic, nationalistic, and populist forces continuously pose a significant challenge to Poland’s democracy.
According to the expert, the primary challenge endangering democracy’s future in Poland is the escalating social polarization driven by KO and PiS. While this strategy secures significant backing for the two largest political groups (which collectively received 75% of the total votes), it also encourages radicalization within political parties and society, leading to rise of populism and “light” xenophobia in the mainstream.
In Czechia, despite a notable rise in voter turnout to its highest level since joining the EU at above 35%, Vit suggested that the recent elections had little impact on the Czech political landscape. Reflecting trends seen in other Central European countries, the campaign revolved around migration and the European Green Deal. Opposition parties such as ANO, “soft” far right and Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) and its allies, “hard” far right, shaped their campaign discourse with a nationalist, populist, and Eurosceptic tone, prompting the ruling coalition to adapt its messaging accordingly. As a result, ANO, led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, claimed first place with above 25 % of the vote, closely followed by the ruling coalition SPOLU (Together) at 22%.
In summary, election campaigns across the analyzed countries primarily addressed domestic issues while framing European concerns in their impact on national politics. Key focuses included defense priorities, support for Ukraine, debates on migration policy, and the implementation of the European Green Deal. There has been a noticeable increase in social polarization and radicalization, with many political parties across the political spectrum capitalizing on Europe’s migration challenges for electoral advantage. The electoral gains of parties critical of the Green Deal and migration policies indicate potential policy adjustments of other parties in these areas going forward.
