The debate featured the following participants:
- Anais Marin, Associate Fellow at Chatham House, France
- Corina Stratulat, Deputy Director and Programme Manager for European Policies and Institutions at the European Policy Centre, Belgium
- Zsuzsanna Vegh, Programme Officer at the German Marshall Fund, Hungary
- Jean-Louis de Brouwer, Director of the European Affairs Programme at the Egmont Institute – discussion moderator
The discussion centered on predictions regarding European election results, the potential for Russian interference, and developing strategies aimed at enhancing European democracy and its resilience.
Zsuzsanna pointed out the growing influence of radical right-wing parties in Europe, both nationally and on a European level. The increasing permeation of European politics by far-right movements constitutes a significant challenge to European democracy. The change is especially concerning, as a noticeable rise in cooperation between mainstream parties and far-right movements at both national and European levels indicates a weakening of the previously established cordon sanitaire. The experts underscored the phenomenon of autocratisation in Hungary, which goes beyond domestic issues and has significant implications for the European Union. According to the Zsuzsanna’s analysis, Orban’s success in eroding Hungarian democratic institutions has set a blueprint that some other European governments now seek to reproduce.
Additionally, the expulsion of German far-right AfD from the Identity and Democracy (ID) group has unsettled established dynamics in the European Parliament. The expert stated that the expulsion opens new possibilities for dialogue between Marine Le Pen’s ID and the European Conservatives and Reformists Party (ECR), which could enhance the ID’s previously negative public image. ID’s alignment with the ECR could facilitate the integration of far right and Eurosceptic voices into the broader political landscape of the European Parliament. In light of this, the future shape of the European Parliament will also depend on the decisions of Giorgia Meloni and the Brothers of Italy party, who are faced with the dilemma of either remaining in the ECR or joining the more centrist European People’s Party (EPP).
Anais, on the other hand, highlighted the threat to European democracy posed by Russia. According to the expert, EU institutions and leaders have long underestimated Russia’s efforts, largely due to the perception that Moscow views the EU as a “political dwarf.” This perception allowed Russia to cultivate relationships with certain countries and leaders as part of a strategy to undermine EU’s cohesion and exacerbate internal divisions. In reality, Russia was undermining EU and NATO from within at a much faster pace and on a larger scale than Western states had imagined. It was only the full-scale invasion of Ukraine that served as a wake-up call.
Anais highlighted Russia’s strategy of spreading disinformation through media and social networks to influence voters abroad with “anti-establishment,” anti-American, and Eurosceptic narratives aligned with its worldview. Besides disinformation, Russia employs tactics like deploying spin doctors, exploiting corruption, co-opting individuals, and using blackmail to recruit foreign agents of influence. On the other hand, Corina Stratulat stressed that mainstream political parties often bear the responsibility for the rise of far right. They undermine the cordon sanitaire by establishing a tactical cooperation with radicals, accommodate certain ideas of national authoritarian populists and underperform concerning social and economic policies. Moreover, the radicalization of mainstream pushes the far right even more to the right because it needs to distinguish itself and the entire political scene is shifting in this direction.
The discussion was summarized by Jean Louis. The Director of the European Affairs Programme at Egmont has voiced concerns about Hungary assuming the presidency of the Council of the EU. What is concerning is that Orban might leverage this position to advance his skeptical stance on the EU’s support for Ukraine and further entrench the notion that Member States can disregard fundamental European principles while continuing to benefit from Union funds. Additionally, what raises concerns, is Orban’s well-known affinity for Vladimir Putin. Moreover, this pro-Russian inclination does not concern only Orban but also more influential European politicians (vide Marine Le Pen) making the coming years particularly challenging for the EU.
