The European elections are poised to shape the European Union’s agenda for the next five years, a period anticipated to be fraught with complex domestic and external challenges. At the forefront of these challenges is Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine, a critical issue demanding immediate attention. As key allies of Ukraine, Poland and Germany are pivotal in shaping EU policies towards the region due to their substantial influence and stakes in Eastern Europe. Despite sharing numerous common interests, notable differences in their positions remain.
In light of this, Austausch e. V and the College of Eastern Europe (KEW), in collaboration with the Heinrich Böll Stiftung Warsaw Office and the Foundation for Polish-German Cooperation, hosted a public debate titled “Shoulder to Shoulder: German-Polish Cooperation within the EU on Eastern Europe Post-Election”.
The debate brought together experts on German-Polish relations and Eastern policy, including:
- Rolf Nikel, former Ambassador, Vice President of the German Council on Foreign Relations, Vice President of the German Poland Institute
- Piotr Buras – Head, ECFR Warsaw, Senior Policy Fellow specializing in Germany’s EU and foreign policy, Poland in the EU and EU politics
- Justyna Gotkowska, Deputy Director at the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) and Head of the Security and Defence Department
- Susan Stewart, Researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP)
The debate focused on the impact of the European Parliament elections on the future of European democracy, the rising influence of the far right, and the security threats to the continent posed by the war in Ukraine and Russia’s aggressive policies.
Rolf Nikel emphasised that while the rise of far-right parties in EU policy-making is a cause for concern, it is important not to become overly pessimistic. Despite the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) securing more than 15 per cent of the vote in Germany, 75 per cent of the population still supported mainstream liberal parties. According to the former German Ambassador to Poland, the only country in Europe where shifting political dynamics should be a genuine cause for concern is France. The historic performance of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (over 30 %), the defeat of President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition (15%), and his call for early parliamentary elections not only signify a decisive shift by French society towards national populism but also clearly undermine the previous role of the government in Paris as a leader of the European community.
According to Justyna Gotkowska, Macron’s decision is highly precarious, potentially resulting in a far-right takeover and a challenging scenario of ‘cohabitation’ between the government and the president, thereby exacerbating the already profound political divisions within French society. Despite the potential risks associated with changes in French politics, the deputy director of OSW firmly asserted that the outcome of the EP elections would have no bearing on the EU’s common security and defence policy.
Piotr Buras expressed a distinctly pessimistic view, arguing that this year’s European elections underscore a deepening crisis of democracy in Europe. The expert pointed out that while the results in France clearly demonstrate the rise of far-right groups, national populist parties either secured victories or experienced substantial gains in support across almost all Member States. Thus, while mainstream parties have effectively contained anti-EU forces this time unless there is a fundamental change in their policies, the next election could witness a major victory for radical factions.
Another topic under intense debate was the electoral impact on leadership dynamics in Europe. While Poland had previously aimed to play a leading role in European policymaking alongside Germany and France within the Weimar Triangle format, the experts concurred that following the elections, neither Emmanuel Macron nor Olaf Scholz would have the mandate to assume leadership roles within the European community anymore. According to Piotr Buras and Rolf Nikel, this development adversely affects the EU’s future, as there is no alternative framework for inter-state cooperation in Europe that could ensure a coherent and decisive common policy on defence issues and the conflict with Russia.
Furthermore, all experts emphasized that an issue requiring critical priority is the security of Europe and the imperative to support Ukraine in its struggle against Russian incursions. Susan Stewart emphasized the need for the European community to recognize the onset of a prolonged period of political instability. In light of threats posed by Russia and challenges posed by China, Europe must prioritize bolstering its internal security measures, such as combating disinformation, while simultaneously enhancing its military and economic capacities. Rolf Nikel agreed with the American expert and emphasized that the European-Russian conflict, albeit different from events of the 20th century, is resembling a new Cold War paradigm. In response to these challenges, the primary goal of European foreign policy should prioritise advancing Ukraine’s integration into EU and NATO frameworks.
