Since September 2023, KEW has initiated the implementation of the Protecting European Values project. As part of this endeavour, our team of experts prepares detailed analyses, organises impactful events, and conducts research visits aimed at identifying and countering threats to democracy across EU member states.
From May 26th to 28th, our team of experts gathered in Brussels for a study trip. During the visit, KEW’s Research Fellows presented their report, ‘Tug of War: Mapping Threats to Democracy in the EU,’ and participated in a debate with experts from EGMONT – Royal Institute for International Relations – on the future trajectory of democracy within the EU.
The KEW team included:
- Zszussanna Vegh, Associate Researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations
- Kristina Tsabala, Analyst at the Centre for the Study of Democracy (CSD) in Sofia
- Maria Winclawska, Associate Professor of Political Science at the Faculty of Political Science and Security Studies at Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Anais Marin, Associate Fellow at the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House in London; and Adam Balcer, Programme Director of the College of Eastern Europe.
In addition to presenting the report, KEW experts held discussions with local partners to explore strategies for effectively responding to the rise of populism in Europe and analyse the Belgian political landscape in light of to the upcoming local, federal, and European elections.
During the first day, on May 27, our team met with Thomas Legein, Political Science researcher at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel, whose expertise focuses on party reform, party politics, and democratic innovations. Our discussion primarily centered on the surge of populist sentiments in northern Belgium, exemplified by the growing influence of the far-right party Vlaams Belang (VB). According to Legein, VB, currently the second most influential party in Flanders, represents one of the most significant threats to democracy in Belgium. While outwardly promoting pro-social policies and emphasising the welfare role of the state, the party simultaneously restricts the definition of Belgian society to its white members. VB targets marginalised communities such as LGBTQ+ individuals and immigrants for discrimination, promotes anti-EU sentiments and advocates for the dissolution of the Belgian federation.
In the consecutive conversation, Emilie Van Haute, a Professor at the Université libre de Bruxelles, shared insights drawn from her research focusing on party membership, intra-party dynamics, factionalism, e
lections, and voting behaviour. Emilie highlighted that the popularity of VB stems not only from the broader populist trend across Europe but primarily from the strategic approach the party employs to engage its electorate. VB not only builds strong party structures based on local initiatives, positioning itself as a grassroots movement, but also prioritises social media outreach to engage with its potential electorate. In addition to being present on platforms such as Facebook and Instagram, VB adeptly adjusts to evolving digital trends and creates content tailored to resonate with specific audiences on platforms like TikTok. Furthermore, the party has effectively portrayed itself as an anti-establishment force, distinguishing itself from ideologically similar counterparts such as the New Flemish Alliance. Unlike the latter, which, despite advocating for Flemish secession and sharing conservative values, was part of the government from 2014 to 2019 and lost its anti-establishment appeal.
What remains surprising, however, is the absence of strong populist movements in Wallonia. According to David Talukder, a Post-doctoral researcher at the University of Namur, with whom our team met on May 28, the contrast between the two parts of Belgium stems from social differences between Walloons and Flemish. The scarcity of radical right-wing parties in Wallonia might be explained by the long-lasting dominance of local politics by the Socialist Party. The Socialist Party’s strong presence in grassroots politics in Wallonia fosters a social environment that hinders right-wing parties from mobilising citizens through populist rhetoric. Another contributing factor, present in both regions but seemingly more effective in the south, is the so-called cordon sanitaire. This informal agreement among Belgian political parties and media outlets mandates the exclusion of far-right parties like VB from coalition negotiations and live television appearances. The enforcement of the cordon sanitaire appears stronger in Wallonia than in Flanders.
The last meeting of our experts was held with Jean-Louis De Brouwer, Director of the European Affairs Department at the Egmont Institute. Jean-Louis underscored the importance of grasping Belgium’s present socio-political dynamics within the framework of its historical context. In the 20th century, the French-speaking part of the society was relatively wealthier and held a more dominant position in Belgian society. However, today, the major economic and intellectual hubs have moved to Flanders. This shift in economic dynamics contributes to a resurgence of separatist sentiments among the formerly dominated Flemish population. Nevertheless, according to Jean-Louis De Brouwer, as a society, Belgians prioritise pragmatism and effective governance over ideology. Therefore, looking ahead, both the N-VA and VB will need to demonstrate their capacity for effective governance rather than focusing solely on ideological agendas like the dissolution of the Belgian federation.
