On November 20-21, as part of the “Protecting European Values” project co-funded by the European Commission, the College of Eastern Europe (KEW) organized a study trip of our experts to Poland. It was attended by PhD Anais Marin (Chatham House) and PhD Andrei Macsut (Romanian Academic Society), as well as Adam Balcer, program director of KEW, and PhD Agnieszka Bryc, our fellow from the Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń.
On November 20, our group met with Piotr Pacewicz, editor-in-chief of the portal OKO.press, and his deputy Michał Danielewski. The conversation concerned prospects of a conflict between the new government and the president and institutions controlled by Law and Justice (PiS), the largest opposition party, and fundamental challenges to restoration of the rule of law due to the presidential veto and the president’s appointments in the justice system. Therefore, according to them, the presidential election in 2025 will be so important for the future of the country.
During the next conversation, Piotr Buras, head of the Warsaw office of the European Council on Foreign Affairs (ECFR), emphasized that the new government will most likely face the strong opposition of the president and PiS in matters of foreign policy. Although, in many key issues (e.g. institutional reform of the EU, Poland’s membership in the eurozone, migration policy, policy towards Ukraine), revolutionary changes in foreign policy should not be expected in the case of the new government compared to the previous one. This is due to the social mood.
Agnieszka Wiśniewska, Editor-in-Chief of krytykapolityczna.pl portal, and Michał Sutowski, a publicist associated with it, told us about a rampant lack of respect for the constitution, division of powers (checks and balances) and autonomy of local governments as the most important legacy of the eight years of PiS rule. They also emphasized that expectations regarding prosocial economic policy are very high. Failure to meet some of them due to budget constraints may cause considerable social disappointment.
Then, we talked with Maia Mazurkiewicz from the “Alliance4Europe” organization about Russian disinformation and the need for a plan for the positive integration of immigrants from Ukraine. Our interlocutor underlined that anti-Ukrainian disinformation is created in Poland mainly by far right circles, but is also strongly promoted by the Kremlin. It is of various nature, but their goals are the same: to weaken the European will to help Ukraine. During dinner, we spoke to Anna Gielewska, editor-in-chief of the Central European investigative portal Vsquare. She told us about her experiences working as an investigative journalist dealing with corruption and disinformation. She emphasized that these phenomena in the Central European region are often similar and intertwine, and sometimes the same networks are standing behind them.
On November 21, we met with PhD Łukasz Zamięcki from the University of Warsaw. In his opinion, the greatest problem of Polish democracy is the growing polarization, which provokes radicalization of public debate. It is becoming more and more superficial and emotional, which facilitates the manipulation of social moods and undermines the idea of the common good and compromise between opposing political forces.
Wojciech Szacki, head of the political department at the “Polityka Insight” think tank, when asked about future threats to Polish democracy, drew attention to the potential instability of the future coalition. In his opinion, the differences between the future parties in power are significant and may become more acute in the event of more serious problems and a decline of support. Regarding Russia’s interference in political life in Poland, in his opinion, in the matter of disinformation, Russian influence is important. Meanwhile, large-scale financing of the main political parties in Poland by Russia is highly unlikely due to the strong opposition to their influence in almost the entire political elite.
During the last meeting with Professor Grzegorz Makowski from Warsaw School of Economics (SGH) and Krzysztof Izdebski, law expert of the Stefan Batory Foundation, our interlocutors emphasized that the legal changes necessary after 8 years of dismantling the rule of law by PiS will be difficult to implement from a midterm perspective. The interlocutors concluded that after 8 years of nepotic rule based on systemic corruption and clientelism, one term of parliament may be insufficient for structural reform of the state. This will be especially difficult if part of the new ruling elite does not demonstrate sufficient determination to introduce greater transparency into Polish public life, bigger than before 2015.
